By Michael O'Hanlon, Mike M. Mochizuki

"In describing their accomplished notion for negotiations with North Korea, O'Hanlon and Mochizuki convey the strategic creativity and analytical intensity badly wanted by way of usa coverage makers facing this unusual, harmful place." --Ash Carter, former Assistant Secretary of protection and Ford starting place Professor of technology and overseas Affairs, John F. Kennedy institution of presidency, Harvard college IN EARLY 2002, in his fateful nation of the union deal with, President Bush defined North Korea as being a member of the "Axis of Evil." because then, the U.S. has long gone to warfare with Iraq, and the realm now wonders what the way forward for Bush's preemption coverage will carry. the various nation's best specialists think that North Korea is a extra impending probability than Saddam's Iraq was once. they've got a nuclear application, a million-man military, and missiles to installation and export. In hindrance at the Korean Peninsula, Michael O'Hanlon, a Senior Fellow at Brooking and traveling lecturer at Princeton, and Mike Mochizuki, endowed chair in Japan-US relatives at G.W. collage, not just learn this factor intimately but additionally supply a finished blueprint for diffusing the drawback with North Korea. Their resolution is available in the shape of a "grand discount" with North Korea. Accords should be negotiated step by step, in spite of the fact that they should be guided by way of a vast and bold imaginative and prescient that addresses not just the nuclear factor but additionally the normal forces at the hyper-militarized peninsula and the continuing decline of the North Korean economic climate.

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Kim Jong Il is no Mikhail Gorbachev or Deng Xiaoping. Rather, he appears to be a leader who sees his country falling apart and wants to hold it together to protect his own power and privilege. Kim’s motivation might well be less to reform than to avoid a fate like that which befell the Shah of Iran in 1979—or, worse yet, Romania’s Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989, killed by his own people in a mass uprising. Kim does not have the oil wealth that propped up Saddam Hussein; he no longer receives subsidies and aid of many hundreds of millions of dollars a year from the Communist Bloc, as he did during the Cold War.

S. participation in multilateral diplomacy with North Korea, President Bush reportedly feels that accepting DPRK demands for bilateral negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang would be relenting to blackmail. Mr. Bush reportedly has some liking for the highly coercive strategy recommended by several members of his administration. For example, in the spring of 2003, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld was said to favor joining with the Chinese to use economic and diplomatic pressure to force regime change in Pyongyang.

Such a tactical approach was perhaps inevitable in the early Clinton years, when the administration was focused on domestic matters and experiencing difficulty in its foreign policy from Somalia to Haiti to Bosnia. As a result, it had a hard time focusing strategically on North Korea at the highest levels of government and on developing an 43 CRISIS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA integrated approach for dealing with Pyongyang that combined incentives with threats and deterrence. A tactical, nuclear-specific focus could also be defended as a reasonable approach in the early 1990s.

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